I haven’t read any predictions or commentaries about who’s favored to win this year. Not that anyone needs another post or gives a shit what I think about it, but here’s how I see this year’s Oscars shaking out:

Best Picture

Who nominated this odd bunch? I went out of my way to see all eight, and I probably would’ve seen only five on my own volition. I see only four true contenders, giving credence to my belief that eight nominations is too damned many.

Two films can be eliminated right off the bat: Mad Max: Fury Road and Bridge of Spies. There’s nothing special about either of these. So, no. Thanks for playing.

Next, The Martian goes. Matt Damon is good in it, and the human interest factor is there. But it’s not a great film.

Brooklyn may have had a better shot in a different year. Not this year, though.

Room, sadly, is next. I liked this one. It’s just not a winner.

I had my money on Spotlight since I saw it. It just seems like a Best Picture. I might be wrong, but I don’t see it winning now after the last two came out.

That brings it to The Big Short or The Revenant. I see these two as the real contenders because of their subject matter, their cast, and their unique approach. Even though Alejandro González Iñárritu just won with Birdman, I think he snags the Oscar again this year.

My guess: The Revenant.

Best Actress

I didn’t see Joy or Carol, so it’s really not fair for me to say. That isn’t going to stop me from guessing, though. Regardless, I’ll be surprised if either Jennifer Lawrence or Cate Blanchett wins.

I did see 45 Years. I don’t see Charlotte Rampling winning. It just wasn’t a stellar performance.

Saoirse Ronan was great in Brooklyn, but I think Brie Larson has a leg up on her. She was really good. The story was tougher to pull off. Plus, it will be a consolation prize for Room not getting Best Picture.

My guess: Brie Larson for Room.

Best Actor

This one is a little tougher. I didn’t see Steve Jobs, but I’ll be surprised if Michael Fassbender wins. Steve Jobs hasn’t been dead long enough.

I didn’t see Trumbo, either, but I heard nothing but great. I’m familiar with Bryan Cranston, and I know he’s great. I can see him winning, but I have my doubts.

Matt Damon was great in The Martian, but not so great that I see him taking this.

The Danish Girl was disappointing in almost every way. I could be wrong, but I doubt Eddie Redmayne is going to win for playing Molly Ringwald. He certainly shouldn’t.

That leaves Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant. I bet he gets it.

My guess: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant.

Best Supporting Actress

Again, it’s not fair to say when I didn’t see either movie. However, I’ll be surprised if Rooney Mara (Carol) or Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) wins.

Spotlight was good, but not because of Rachel McAdams. I felt she wasn’t even used enough. Her role was flat. I don’t think she’s a winner.

Jennifer Jason Leigh was awesome in The Hateful Eight. However, Alicia Vikander was the only thing about The Danish Girl that wowed me. Plus, her performance seems hard to top. She deserves it, and I bet she gets it.

My guess: Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl.

Best Supporting Actor

I didn’t see Creed, so I can’t assess Sylvester Stallone’s performance in it. I have seen him act before, though. I know he won the Golden Globe for Creed. If he wins, it’s because he was Rocky.

Mark Ruffalo did quite a few films last year. For the same reason as Rachel McAdams, though, I don’t see him winning for Spotlight.

Christian Bale probably isn’t a winner for The Big Short, either. His performance was good but not all that.

That leaves Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies and Tom Hardy for The Revenant. Rylance really stood out in what was really just an okay film. I loved his character, and he brought such great character to him. However, I see Hardy walking away with the trophy. He appeared in two Best Picture nominations, so I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t get something. Besides, he stole the show in The Revenant— I thought he was better than DiCaprio.

My guess: Tom Hardy for The Revenant.

I also sense that Son of Saul is a shoo-in for Best Foreign Language Film and Amy is for Best Documentary. I can see Emmanuel Lubezki winning Best Cinematography for The Revenant, but I think John Seale is going to walk away with the trinket for Mad Max: Fury Road.

In a few hours, it’ll all be history and we’ll know for sure. I’m looking forward to seeing what I hit and missed here. Break a leg, bitches!